Useless layabouts in protest fury posted by Richard Seymour

Labels: militancy, monarchy, protest, protests, royal, royal scum, students, tories

Sarkozy's victory party. posted by Richard Seymour

He won with 53% of the vote and only one other competitor, and this is a huge lead according to some commentators. It is slightly more than half of the vote, and a 6% lead. A more sizeable share of a more sizeable vote than many of the supposed 'landslides' in Anglo-American elections - yet still, as tacitly acknowledged by the oleaginous references to a 'divisive campaign' and 'polarisation', he is hardly the bearer of a collective national will. Already the prepared journalistic cliches are being wielded, all the better not to have to confront any issues. He will, we have been told, have to 'unite a divided nation'. A uniter, not a divider: as if. Obviously, that happens to be Sarkozy's line. As he explains: "I love France. I love France, just as one loves someone who is very close to one". Petain, he loved France.

The high turnout, we are told, was a 'victory for democracy': as if a vote for any demagogic racist scumbag, so long as there is a big turnout, is a 'victory for democracy'. We have been told of the 'radically different' proposals of the two candidates - but this is the same media that told us Bush and Gore were 'radically different' because the latter was a bit less inclined to pamper the gun lobby. We have been advised that Royal was 'gracious in defeat', as if a bourgeois Socialist politician would start shouting at the cameras that "the bastards have elected racaille! Get out on the streets! Riot! Karscherise the Sarkozy administration!" The Observer even ponders a 'move to the centre' by the PS, as if it isn't already run by the centre-right with an ineffectual Blairite leader.

Speaking of riots, there have been claims that a vote for Sarkozy would produce riots, and indeed, it is reported that French cops are beating the streets of the banlieues tonight, awaiting the first incidence of trouble. Well, that would be the product of a basic survival instinct. Since, quite simply, Sarkozy means the unemployed youths, the low-paid workers, the immigrants and every other marginalised, exploited, oppressed group in society nothing but harm, a few riots would be a healthy sign of life. Write it down and pass it on, I'm backing the Paris jihad the second it hits the streets. Damn it, Sarkozy's administration should be battered by mass demonstrations and strike waves from the second it starts business.

53% of French voters can go fuck themselves.

Labels: french elections, racism, royal, sarkozy, socialism, working class

French Elections News. posted by Richard Seymour

First of all, the turnout is much higher than it was last time round at approximately 84%. Secondly, the voting estimates are as follows:

1. Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) 29,4 %
2. Ségolène Royal (PS) 26,2 %
3. François Bayrou (UDF) 18,6 %
4. Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) 10,8 %
5. Olivier Besancenot (LCR) 4,7 %
6. Marie-George Buffet (PC) 2,1 %
7. Philippe de Villiers (MPF) 2,5 %
8. Arlette Laguiller (LO) 1,5%
9. José Bové (Alter) 1 %
10. Dominique Voynet (Verts) 1,6 %
11. Gérard Schivardi (PT) 0,4 %
12. Frédéric Nihous (CPNT) 1,2 %

Actually, as I write, I've seen a new list of estimates on the Wikipedia site, which puts Besancenot's vote slightly higher at 5.4%, enough to entitle the LCR to a substantial sum of money to organise with, no bad thing. But unfortunately, Wikipedia doesn't link to a source for its estimate, so I'll stick with the conservative assumptions of the Temps report.

It means a strong vote for Sarkozy, who probably picked up a number of Le Pen voters. Bayrou will not make the second round on this estimate despite getting almost a fifth of the vote and beating Le Pen (against the expectations of some polls), so one can only hope that his votes tend toward Royal, because Sarkozy is fucking menace. However, look at the splintered far left vote! Besancenot is a mere whisker from the 5% threshold, but if there had been a unity candidate for the left-of-left, perhaps with Bove an early leader, their results would have been very sizeable, and probably much higher than their combined votes here, which amounts to 11.3% (including the Greens) or 9.7% (excluding the Greens). It's a strong show of support for the radical and revolutionary left, and Besancenot's vote does him great credit, but it's also a terribly wasted opportunity. A united anti-liberal left getting a strong vote could have produced the groundwork for a new alignment and a new alliance in French politics.

42.7% of the votes went to the right if my calculation is correct (I'm not including the CPNT because I can't tell what their politics are), 18.6% voted for the centrist candidate, and 37.5% voted for the left. The main reason the centrist vote is so strong, I suspect, is because the PS practically threw away their campaign. Not only because Royal was 'gaffe-prone', but also because she offered practically nothing distinctive. Bayrou positioned himself as a "Clintonian" supporting Third Way politics, and a renegotiated EU Treaty, while opposing the Iraq war. Royal is a self-declared Blairite, supporting Third Way politics, and a renegotiated EU Treaty, while opposing the Iraq war. Sarkozy is for tough anti-crime policies, a renegotiated EU Treaty, and 'family values', and so is Royal.

The sight of senior PS right-wingers advocating a PS-UDF coalition, repeatedly, despite official denials from Royal, is indicative of how much head-way Bayrou was able to make with left-voters by positioning himself as a critic of the immigrant-bashing, racist rhetoric and anti-civil-libertarian politics, while the Royal camp was extremely timid on all of those points. If the aim was to create a Blairite centre-left electoral coalition, it has not succeeded. On the other hand, Sarkozy has run a slick campaign with some carefully drip-fed noises to appease the far right (including the eugenicist line that paedophiles and suicides are genetically determined to be that way), and careful cultivation of the UMP electoral base with promises of authoritarian crackdowns on the banlieues.

So, since Bayrou's main beef these days is with the conservatives he was once happy to work with and serve under, one assumes that he will ask his voters to support Royal. PS right-winger and privatiser-in-chief during the last Socialist-led administration is now clumsily appealing to the voters for the losing candidates, emphasising that a vote for Royal would not be merely anti-Sarkozy, but would be a positive vote - for nothing less substantial than 'revival' or a 'house of revival', mind you.

Labels: bayrou, besancenot, french elections, le pen, royal, sarkozy

French elections: revenge of the neocons? posted by Richard Seymour

It is looking increasingly likely that the neoconservatives will see their preferred candidate, Nicholas Sarkozy, elected. It would, for them, be a surprising and satisfying turnaround in the heart of 'Old Europe' or 'social Europe', 'Gaullist' France. To say 'increasingly likely' is not necessarily to say 'very likely' since a few factors have emerged to complicate the picture, as we'll see. There has been a huge heap of horseshit spread around by disgusting hypocrites like pro-war 'leftists' Andre Glucksmann and Pierre Bruckner about Sarkozy's commitment to opposing 'totalitarianism'. Yet, Sarkozy recently met President Mubarak of Egypt, whose recent record on torturing dissidents is discussed here, and assured him that he looked forward to a "trustful and friendly relationship". Sarkozy isn't the only reactionary to get the support of left-renegades. Former communist Alain Soral has apparently signalled his conversion to the fascist Le Pen's camp following a stream of anti-gay and antisemitic comments in the national media. But Sarkozy is working hard to muscle in on Le Pen's rhetoric, while at the same time citing his 'left' supporters.

He is much admired by the American neoconservatives, who have reservations only about his occasional 'economic nationalism'. His most important asset for them is that he will suspend any effort at an independent foreign policy by one of the main European powers, while another potentially independent power, Germany, is largely playing ball under the leadership of Merkel.

The complicating factors are as follows. Firstly, 42% of French voters are undecided, and it is unclear in which direction they will go. Some reports suggest that about half of the industrial working class has not decided who to vote for, and this could well redound to Royal's benefit at the last moment. According to some polls, the centrist Bayrou could well end up opposing Sarkozy in the second round, and left voters would tactically back him. Secondly, there have been suggestions from senior PS figures of a coalition with Bayrou, on the grounds that there are no differences of substance between Royal's policies and those Bayrou. Royal doesn't favour it in public, since the effect would be to abandon her campaign, but it is such a fuck up to date that one can imagine her last-minute capitulation. Thirdly, one recent poll puts Sarkozy and Royal neck and neck, although other polls continue to give Sarkozy a 6% lead. Finally, the position of the radical left-of-left candidates is not strong. Olivier Besancenot of the LCR looks like he's the only far left candidate, including the charismatic Bove, who will make the 5% barrier. So, many of the left-of-left votes could well collapse into support for Royal.

It is hard to overstate what a complete and utter farce this whole thing is. On the one hand, the radical and revolutionary left had a fantastic chance, after its stunning wave of victories against the right-wing government, to unite around a good candidate and to pose a serious left-challenge to the neoliberal consensus. One can say with some certainty that if this effort had not been scuppered by the treacherous sectarianism of some elements, notably the PCF, there wouldn't be senior PS figures bragging that their programme is essentially the same as that of the UDF. On the other hand, the disgrace of nominally 'left' figures flocking to Sarkozy has given some fleeting credibility to his racist diatribes, reactionary rhetoric on crime, neoliberal policies, corruption, and his hawkish, pro-Israel foreign policy stance. Sarkozy offers the French ruling class the opportunity to pursue an aggressive, if difficult, war against the working class and its resistance to the attempts to remove labour protections and create a more casualised, insecure, and eventually lower-paid labour market. He offers the upwardly mobile middle class a policy of aggressive repression in the poor banlieues and tighter immigration controls, while allowing employers to benefit from the even more parlous condition of migrant labourers. He promises to reorient the French state more firmly toward Washington and its interests, in the hopes of gaining French capital a bigger share of the imperial spoils. He will maintain the imperialist mission force in Africa, Afghanistan and Yugoslavia, and the French mercenaries operating in Iraq will not be discouraged.

I wish Besancenot well, and don't underestimate the impact a sizeable vote for him could have. Yet, the extent to which it has already been pissed up against the wall is remarkable, and this should really lead to a bashing together of heads after the whole fracas has played out, hopefully without the grotesque spectacle of a Sarkozy-Le Pen final round.

Labels: capitalism, french elections, imperialism, neocons, racism, royal, sarkozy