LENIN'S TOMB

 

Friday, May 07, 2010

Election summary posted by Richard Seymour

The Tories, winning a plurality of the vote, have failed to get an overall majority. This is excellent news both for what it shows, and for what it means. It shows that people were more wary of the Tories and their aggressive agenda of cuts than they were of any of this crap about a hung parliament or irresponsible liberals. Lack of enthusiasm for Labour didn't translate into votes for Tories. The share of the vote for the Conservatives is just over a third of those who voted, or approximately a fifth of all eligible voters, and the number of seats won by the Tories is lower than in 1992, 1987, 1983, 1979, 1970, 1959 and 1955.

Not only did a wave of enthusiasm not bring Tory voters surging out to overthrow Labour in the marginals, but in some seats the dread of a Tory victory produced a strong swing back to Labour, mostly in areas where Labour already had a solid majority. It means that there will not be a Tory government with an emergency budget passed into law in the first six months of their rule. Of course, the alternative Lib-Lab coalition will certainly impose steep budget cuts, but there isn't a clear and authoritative mandate for it in the way that there would be had the Tories won an outright majority. Even if all parties are committed to cuts, this result places us in a better position to resist them.

Neither Labour nor the Lib Dems individually has any right to boast about these results. However, both parties can now form a coalition based on the clear anti-Tory majority that the results express. New Labour ministers and officials have been talking up this clear progressive majority all night. Indeed, the combined vote for Labour and the Lib Dems is easily more than 50%, which would give them a legitimate basis for such a coalition. If they're going to do this, however, then they will have no choice but to deliver electoral reform as a minimum in the next term. That means they will have to live with the possibility of smaller parties finding it easier to emerge and challenge their hegemony over all the left-of-centre votes. Also note that the basis on which such a coalition is being raised by Labour MPs is that it will avoid rapid and deep public spending cuts and thus protect the economy. This being the case, they will experience some severe difficulties when they try to push through the cuts.

Relatedly, the results for almost all left-of-Labour candidates were either disappointing or appalling. The best result of the night was Caroline Lucas' excellent victory in Brighton Pavilion, but there's not much to celebrate beyond that. Salma Yaqoob came a strong second in Birmingham Hall Green - but given Yaqoob's profile, and the backing of Lynne Jones among others, one might have expected her to do better. She has been squeezed by the rush back to Labour in working class heartlands. As yet, there is no word on Galloway's result, but right-wing Twitterers have been perhaps prematurely dancing on his electoral grave all night - ah but, as I write, a banner on BBC News says Labour has held Poplar and Limehouse... Beyond that - well, look at the results for TUSC and those Respect candidates not based in Birmingham or the East End. On the disappointing side are results like Sheridan's 3%, but most of the votes are at an appalling fraction of 1%. I suppose on the bright side, the Solidarity/TUSC candidate in Inverness soundly thrashed the 'Joy of Talk' candidate by gaining fifty percent more votes than him. Let no one say that I don't know how to accentuate the positive. You might think it's as well that the Left did not go into these elections grandstanding and talking up its chances, but the fact is that even where the Left had localised prospects the returns have been a disappointment.

The only realistic conclusion is that the window for left-of-Labour electoral challenges has been gradually shutting since 2005, and will not dramatically widen short of the emergence of a social movement on which to base it. These are objective limitations which can't be overcome with a command economy of movement-building in which the grassroots is badgered and cajoled into hyperactivism. What can be achieved in the immediate term is the working out an emergency coalition against the coming public sector cuts. And that is exactly what is needed as soon as possible.

The news about the fascist vote is on balance good. It could have been gruesome, but instead its merely ugly. As it turns out, it looks as if the BNP was easily defeated in Barking, despite Griffin gaining more than 6,000 votes. Griffin tried to say in the run-up to the result that he'd only really aimed to get second place. Actually, he was driven to third place. He's now reportedly blamed his misfortune on the "harrassment" of his bootboys by UAF activists. I'm happy to be among those noisome intruders that Griffin can blame for his defeat. The BNP was also driven into fourth place in target seats like Stoke Central and Stoke South. They did, of course, gain some strong votes even where they were clearly defeated. Overall, they gained about 2% of the vote nationally, a slight improvement. I'm not sure how to interpret this as yet, but with UKIP's vote at 3% (not much in the way of gains for them) that makes a 5% vote for right-of-Tory forces. It does possibly suggest that they were unable to capitalise on the really nasty atmosphere over immigration, which would mean that people were more inclined to vote on class issues than they were mobilised by racism.

Lastly, the turnout is being talked up, but at most it is projected to reach about 70%, less than in 1997 which was then the lowest turnout in the post-war period. The turnout has been driven up by the closeness of he contest, but it's still consistent with the longer term popular disengagement with electoral politics. The legitimacy of the state is entering into a long-term crisis, as its representative features look increasingly unconvincing as bases for popular participation. Whitehall is well aware of this, and that PR isn't going to fundamentally reverse this trend. For a full discussion of the reasons for this, see chapter one of The Meaning of David Cameron, perhaps shortly to be renamed, What Was the Point of David Cameron?

Labels: bnp scum, elections, fascism, liberal democrats, new labour, respect, socialism, tories, tusc

8:41:00 am | Permalink | Comments thread | | Print | Digg | del.icio.us | reddit | StumbleUpon | diigo it Tweet| Share| Flattr this

Search via Google

Info

Richard Seymour

Richard Seymour's Wiki

Richard Seymour: information and contact

Richard Seymour's agent

RSS

Twitter

Tumblr

Pinterest

Academia

Storify

Donate

corbyn_9781784785314-max_221-32100507bd25b752de8c389f93cd0bb4

Against Austerity cover

Subscription options

Flattr this

Recent Comments

Powered by Disqus

Recent Posts

Subscribe to Lenin's Tomb
Email:

Lenosphere

Archives

September 2001

June 2003

July 2003

August 2003

September 2003

October 2003

November 2003

December 2003

January 2004

February 2004

March 2004

April 2004

May 2004

June 2004

July 2004

August 2004

September 2004

October 2004

November 2004

December 2004

January 2005

February 2005

March 2005

April 2005

May 2005

June 2005

July 2005

August 2005

September 2005

October 2005

November 2005

December 2005

January 2006

February 2006

March 2006

April 2006

May 2006

June 2006

July 2006

August 2006

September 2006

October 2006

November 2006

December 2006

January 2007

February 2007

March 2007

April 2007

May 2007

June 2007

July 2007

August 2007

September 2007

October 2007

November 2007

December 2007

January 2008

February 2008

March 2008

April 2008

May 2008

June 2008

July 2008

August 2008

September 2008

October 2008

November 2008

December 2008

January 2009

February 2009

March 2009

April 2009

May 2009

June 2009

July 2009

August 2009

September 2009

October 2009

November 2009

December 2009

January 2010

February 2010

March 2010

April 2010

May 2010

June 2010

July 2010

August 2010

September 2010

October 2010

November 2010

December 2010

January 2011

February 2011

March 2011

April 2011

May 2011

June 2011

July 2011

August 2011

September 2011

October 2011

November 2011

December 2011

January 2012

February 2012

March 2012

April 2012

May 2012

June 2012

July 2012

August 2012

September 2012

October 2012

November 2012

December 2012

January 2013

February 2013

March 2013

April 2013

May 2013

June 2013

July 2013

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

August 2014

September 2014

October 2014

November 2014

December 2014

January 2015

February 2015

March 2015

April 2015

May 2015

June 2015

July 2015

August 2015

September 2015

October 2015

December 2015

March 2016

April 2016

May 2016

June 2016

July 2016

August 2016

September 2016

October 2016

November 2016

December 2016

January 2017

February 2017

March 2017

April 2017

May 2017

June 2017

July 2017

August 2017

Dossiers

Hurricane Katrina Dossier

Suicide Bombing Dossier

Iraqi Resistance Dossier

Haiti Dossier

Christopher Hitchens Dossier

Organic Intellectuals

Michael Rosen

Left Flank

Necessary Agitation

China Miéville

Je Est Un Autre

Verso

Doug Henwood

Michael Lavalette

Entschindet und Vergeht

The Mustard Seed

Solomon's Minefield

3arabawy

Sursock

Left Now

Le Poireau Rouge

Complex System of Pipes

Le Colonel Chabert [see archives]

K-Punk

Faithful to the Line

Jews Sans Frontieres

Institute for Conjunctural Research

The Proles

Infinite Thought

Critical Montages

A Gauche

Histologion

Wat Tyler

Ken McLeod

Unrepentant Marxist

John Molyneux

Rastî

Obsolete

Bureau of Counterpropaganda

Prisoner of Starvation

Kotaji

Through The Scary Door

Historical Materialism

1820

General, Your Tank is a Powerful Vehicle

Fruits of our Labour

Left I on the News

Organized Rage

Another Green World

Climate and Capitalism

The View From Steeltown

Long Sunday

Anti-dialectics

Empire Watch [archives]

Killing Time [archives]

Ob Fusc [archives]

Apostate Windbag [archives]

Alphonse [archives]

Dead Men Left [dead, man left]

Bat [archives]

Bionic Octopus [archives]

Keeping the Rabble in Line [archives]

Cliffism [archives]

Antiwar

Antiwar.com

Antiwar.blog

Osama Saeed

Dahr Jamail

Angry Arab

Desert Peace

Abu Aardvark

Juan Cole

Baghdad Burning

Collective Lounge

Iraqi Democrats Against the Occupation

Unfair Witness [archive]

Iraq Occupation & Resistance Report [archive]

Socialism

Socialist Workers Party

Socialist Aotearoa

Globalise Resistance

Red Pepper

Marxists

New Left Review

Socialist Review

Socialist Worker

World Socialist Website

Left Turn

Noam Chomsky

South Africa Keep Left

Monthly Review

Morning Star

Radical Philosophy

Blogger
blog comments powered by Disqus