Pointlessly indulgent, but also compulsory. I've been trying to work out the likely result of the election, based on a mixture of polling reports. The polling points to a hung parliament with the Tories 43 seats short of a majority, the Lib Dems being massively under-represented despite beating Labour in votes. However, my 'instinct' - a compound of expectations based on past disappointments, unrealistic aspirations and a sense of sheer dread - has other ideas. Furthermore, my 'ego' - an obese monkey that incessantly pleasures itself while I carry it around on my back - leads me to believe that my 'instinct' has superior access to voters' preferences. Said instinct therefore expects a last minute Labour surge giving them just under a third of the vote, a squeezed Lib Dem vote, closer to the low than the high twenties, and a very slight overall Tory majority - about 330 seats of 646, based on just over a third of the vote. I would also expect Plaid Cymru and SNP to pick up a few seats. Having negotiated a compromise between my instinct and psephological science, I therefore offer the following: