Sunday, January 25, 2015

Syriza landslide: Troika Plan B

Current exit polls give Syriza a lead of at least 9%, averaging 12% and possibly as high as 16%.  Syriza is on 36-39%,  New Democracy on 23-27%.

Unfortunately, there is a dark side of the elections, which is that Golden Dawn did better than expected with 7-9%.  The new centrist party, To Potami, did better than expected with 6-8%, and Pasok got the same.  The Greek communists (KKE) got 4.5-5.5%, the right-wing nationalist Independent Greeks 3.5-4% and Papandreou's formation 2.5-3%.

It isn't yet clear if this is enough to give Syriza an outright governing majority.  This depends on relatively minor fluctuations in the vote.  If, for example, Papandreou's bloc gets just over the 3% mark it will get into parliament and thus deprive Syriza of a parliamentary majority.  But either way, coalition or not - and we prefer not - this is going to be the first experiment in which a European country is governed by the radical left specifically for the purposes of resisting austerity.

Meanwhile, in Berlin, European leaders are considering their options: