Friday, September 14, 2007

Poll suggests 1.2m violent deaths in Iraq since 2003

The ORB polling agency, frequently cited in the press, has produced new research suggesting that up to 1.2m had died as a result of violence rather than old age in Iraq since 2003 as of last month. The press release is reproduced here, and there's a story about it here. Based on face-to-face interviews, this would seem to corroborate some of the more pessimistic extrapolations from the last Lancet study. This is the explanation:

Q How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence rather than a natural death such as old age)? Please note that I mean those who were actually living under your roof.

None 78%

One death 16%

Two deaths 5%

Threedeaths 1%

Four+ deaths 0.002%

Given that from the 2005 census there are a total of 4,050,597 households this data suggests a total of 1,220,580 deaths since the invasion in 2003.

The story isn't getting much coverage. In most news items I can find about it, it's relegate to a small side box item. For instance, here and here. Nothing about it in any UK news source yet as far as I know.