Two parties, two fingers posted by Meaders

The Tomb should've covered the two recent by-elections earlier, but Alex Callinicos holding forth in Socialist Worker is a good enough excuse to jump up and down and point. Alex:

The Westminster village has moved remarkably quickly to bury the parliamentary by-elections in Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chislehurst on Thursday of last week. That is because they contradict the official story about where British politics is going.

According to this official story, a familiar turn in the electoral cycle is taking place. We are at the fag-end of a Labour government and the pendulum is swinging back towards the Tories.

Blaenau Gwent, formerly Ebbw Vale, was once held by Michael Foot and Nye Bevan. It is, as Alex says, the "heartland of the heartland" for Labour. It's now been won by independent candidates in its last two elections: a seat that Labour, without any doubts, would've hoped to re-take after Peter Law's win in 2005, has stuck two fingers in Blair's direction once more.

But it's Bromley and Chiselhurst that's most dramatic - for both parties. The thing to get your head around is just how bad the Labour vote was. When I first saw the results posted, I assumed it was misprint: it seems just outlandish that the governing party would come so close to losing its deposit - limping in with 6.6% of the vote, somewhat behind the swivel-eyed loons of UKIP on 8.1%.

To swing - with the same candidate, Rachel Reeves - from over 20% in 2005, to scraping past the 5% barrier a year later demonstrates how deep the disillusionment with Blair now is. Even by the standards of by-election protest votes, this is a huge turnaround. Labour fought an impeccably Blairite campaign, with Reeves telling voters she wanted:

ID Cards: Support ID cards to help our security and beat benefit fraud. Back investment in tough immigration controls

Contract with YOU: Run monthly surgeries and coffee mornings across Bromley & Chislehurst; widely publish my office contact details; run web-based MP inquiry service; hold annual St George's day event

Granted, it's not Liam Byrne, but she's certainly making the effort. Tragically, the Tory voters of Bromley and Chiselhurst prefer to sup their reactionary broth at source, rather than warmed-over and delicately Islington-scented.

Not that the Tories can celebrate, either. The consequences of their dash for the centre were noted by Gordon Brown, in his own manner:

Gordon Brown's contempt for David Cameron deepens by the day. When he hears that the Tory leader has made a speech, the Chancellor snorts: "But where's the policy?" In Mr Brown's view, Mr Cameron's strategy is all wrong: wooing Lib Dem votes he may not win over, while ditching what the Chancellor regards as the popular elements of Toryism.

David Cameron, since becoming party leader, has had a pretty dreadful set of by-elections: Bromley and Chiselhurst is the worst, of course, but his first outing - trumpeted as a chance to "make a dent" on Labour's support in one of its safest seats - resulted in an entertainingly large swing against the Tories. The local council elections were a brighter moment, though it is hard to escape the conclusion that the Tories apparent victory has less to do with their popularity than the unwillingness of Labour voters to present themselves at polling booths.

The truth is that the two-party system that has so long held British politics by the throat is breaking down. After carefully defining and enforcing the "centre" of British politics, the Westminster village finds itself confronted by an embittered population curiously unwilling to play along. The opportunities for the Left, at present, should be clear: Blaenau Gwent is further confirmation of that.