German election results. posted by Richard Seymour

Just a few quick comments on the apparent outcome of the German elections. The results are described by The Guardian as follows:

With votes counted in 98% of districts, Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats had won 35.3% of the vote; Mr Schröder's party 34.2%; the Free Democrats 9.8%, the Left party 8.6% and the Greens 8.1%.

The two far right parties, the NDP and the DVU, did not make it past the 5% barrier to get into the Bundestag, although I should be interested to see exactly what they did get and where their votes were strongest. The pre-election polls did not register anything close to 5% for them.

There is much talk on the BBC this morning of Schroeder's amazing comeback, and the results do represent quite a considerable reversal of fortunes for the right-wing CDU, who had previously led the polls by 21%. But, as The Guardian notes:

In the end, though, the party won 35.3% - three percentage points less than in Germany's last election in 2002 and one of its worst results ever.

But talk of Schroeder's comeback is vastly over-stated. For one thing, if the German Tories just registered one of their worst ever results and are still slightly ahead of the SPD, that isn't an outstanding mandate for either Schroeder or Merkel. For another, as most commentators note, it was Merkel's weird ineptitude that resulted in the collapse of support for the CDU. Schroeder's support was drastically weakened by his tax cuts for the rich - taxes fell for top earners this year from 48.5% to 42%. But the Tories did not help themselves by selecting Paul Kirchof as a Shadow Finance Minister - a radical neo-Thatcherite, he proposed large cuts in public expenditure while wanting to reduce taxes for the rich further. His worst moment was the proposition of a 25% flat tax, but Merkel's preferred reduction of top rate tax to 39% has not fared much better. Merkel tried to staunch that particular wound over the weekend by claiming that the SPD also planned swingeing cuts, but to no avail.

The big story in the election is the Left Party (Linke) and how it, with 8.6% of the vote (which looks at the moment like 54 seats), quickly became the unofficial opposition. The Linke made by far the largest gains in the election. The immediate response of both Merkel and Schroeder was that they would work with any party except the Left Party. Schroeder would work with the FDP (free market liberals), while Merkel would work with the Greens. That's all academic, since the Left Party had no intention of forming a coalition with the parties of privatisation, tax cuts for the rich and a drastically curtailed welfare state. It has succeeded in its goal, which has been to make a radical Left incursion into mainstreeam politics, putting the case for opposition to war, a staunch defence of the welfare state and job protection. In winning the support of millions for such policies, it has successfully broken the neoliberal consensus and begun the process of realigning the German left.

See also: Lenin's Tomb: Interview with a Left Party Activist and Direland: Norman Birnbaum on Germany's Political Crisis.