In and Out in London & Washington. posted by Richard Seymour

The crucial question: will the guys now raping Baghdad withdraw or keep jabbing away like a priapic Woody Woodpecker?

According to Juan Cole , Jack Straw’s recent half-hearted admission that UK troops are “part of the problem” in Iraq is a signal that a belated and bloodied withdrawal is imminent. News reports repeatedly back up this theme. For instance, > this AP report , repeated in the Marine Corp Times , suggests that preparations are well underway. It suggests that, while this strategy relies on the insurgency not getting any worse, for Rumsfeld it does not appear to depend on a defeat for the insurgency. (In fact, the article surreptitiously berates the Bush team for being too eager to depart when “the Iraqis” may not yet be ready).

In an increasingly familiar vein, USA Today reports the deaths of 14 Marines this week (nudging total coalition fatalities up to 2000), as yet more evidence that the Iraqi resistance is becoming deadlier and more professional by the day:

Iraqi insurgents using increasingly sophisticated tactics struck a blow to the American heartland Wednesday, killing 14 U.S. Marines in a roadside bombing. It was one of the single deadliest attacks of the war.

...

President Bush called the deaths of the 14 Marines a "grim reminder" that America is at war.
"These terrorists and insurgents will use brutal tactics because they're trying to shake the will of the United States of America," he said in Grapevine, Texas.
The back-to-back attacks make this one of the costliest three-day periods of the war for U.S. forces and came in an area of western Iraq that has become a crossroads between Baghdad and fighters coming across the Syrian border.

...

Military analysts say the deaths this week speak to the mounting tactical skill of the insurgency. Marginal or less committed insurgents have either been killed by U.S.-led forces or have abandoned the cause, says Andrew Krepinevich, director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

Those who remain are battle-honed veterans. "The hard-core insurgents who remain have essentially been at an Iraqi version of our National Training Center since 2003," Krepinevich says.

And yet, for all that, it looks essentially as though it’s going to pan out exactly as I anticipated , for the New York Times reports that plans are under way to “keep large numbers of support troops and supplies in Iraq or in nearby countries, ready to assist Iraqi units fighting insurgents” with the pretext that the Iraqi Ministry of Defence “is riddled with crippling problems that have raised concerns about its ability to keep Iraqi units paid, fed and equipped once it assumes full responsibility for the army”.

Norman Solomon suggested the other day that all the talk of withdrawal on Bush’s part was a sop to public opinion in the run up to an election. I daresay Straw’s words were similarly intended, particularly after his bruising experience at the hands of the “egregious” MPAC. But it is significant in and of itself that both the US & UK governments feel obliged to make some concession to the growing crises at home. I say Blair has never looked weaker, and is desperate to make some gesture to the antiwar voters without losing any more face. Bush’s poll ratings are plummeting, and American support for the war is skydiving. So, we are assured, the boys and girls are coming back home. It’s crucial to strike now, I’d suggest. The StWC’s immediate reaction to the murder of Mr Menezes showed it is aware of just how much of a crisis the government is in. The next national demonstration against the occupation is on September 24th.