The war against Iran. posted by Richard Seymour

Israel is issuing warnings, having previously hinted that it may well launch a few strikes on Iran to frustrate its nuclear programme. As the United States' aggressive surrogate in the Middle East, Israel may very well do what the United States dare not attempt at the moment - expand the frontiers of the 'war on terror' into Persia.

The election of the hardline "headcase", (to borrow the rustic argot of the Foreign Office), Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been a severe blow to Israel, as some had nurtured hopes that the 'reformist' (modestly conservative) candidate would restore diplomatic ties with the neo-Biblical state in the Levant. This is especially problematic for Israel, since Iran's profile in the region has risen substantially since the fall of Saddam Hussein. Edward Said once noted that Iraq was potentially the most powerful country in the Middle East: oil-rich, wealthy and educated, it was easily a local hegemonic power in germination. Iran's stake in the New Iraq has been self-evident in the public mobilisations of Shi'ites, and in the associations between many Iraqi Shi'ite leaders and their cross-border co-religionists. Iran has supported the Badr Corps for years, helping Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir Al Hakim set up the resistance cells, develop intelligence networks - these were involved in the 1991 uprising against Hussein.

The new Iranian President's declarations about nuclear power have already sent oil prices soaring . And while the Iranian press is claiming that BP are interested in securing contracts in Iran , there are too many apple-carts upset by Iran's growing profile for there not to be some hostilities. The other aspect of this to bear in mind is that China, the rising counter-hegemon, is experiencing rapidly growing demand for oil: China's demand for oil in 2004 alone rose 15 percent to 6.7 million barrels a day . This makes control over and access to oil reserves all the more vital. And, as Iran has expressed a willingness to develop ties with the PRC (The Islamic Republic embraces communism!), this makes it all the more urgent for the US and Israel to act in some way to 'contain' the regime.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see a brief Israeli blitz on Iran shortly, and it would also be entirely undemanding on my credulity to see Bush defending it with reference to "Israel's legitimate security needs".