Iraqi elections. posted by Richard Seymour

We accept that if Iraqis are entitled to hope for anything, it is for some good to come of this occupation. Elections, at least, that aren't compulsory and don't involve a single candidate accruing 100% of the votes on pain of torture and death. Hence, "50 to 60 percent of Iraqis are "very likely" or "intend" to vote in most areas" according to recent US surveys (no longer the 80% claimed at the end of last year). After suffering murder (even in the absurdly low official figures, it is acknowledged that most civilians were killed by the coalition and not insurgents), instability , 70% unemployment and torture at the hands of US troops , UK troops (in the linked story, a soldier explains that he took pictures of the torture to show to his mother - aawwwe), and Iraqi police , the least Iraqis could ask for is some small reward for their patience and forbearance.

Sadly, though rather predictably, these elections are farcical without being funny and tragic without being dignified. It is impossible, with the best of wills to conduct free and fair elections under occupation with a war of attrition taking place between rebels and occupiers. The best of wills is exactly what is missing here, of course, but I'll come to that later. Already we know that approximately 3 million Iraqis will be unable to participate. As MediaLens points out, neither will the 100,000 killed by the occupiers, the hundreds of thousands of refugees from Fallujah and those languishing in US-run jails. There are, of course, those who will be unwilling to vote in an election which, as Jonathan Steele points out, has no defining issues of difference:

In fact the differences between the various lists and candidates' programmes is minimal.

The key issue of how long the occupation should continue has not been debated. This leaves the many Iraqis who want to see an early end to it in a dilemma. A contested election is undoubtedly seen by many Iraqis as a historic step forward. On the down side, the vote gives legitimacy to the occupation, especially when there is no party on the ballot which is campaigning unambiguously for the troops' departure.

Very few Iraqis talk of the invasion as a liberation these days. The vast majority call it an occupation, yet they see no party or candidate articulating that viewpoint. So the sense of powerlessness and disenfranchisement persists.

At the moment, less than a quarter of Iraqi ex-pats - who are probably in a better position to vote than those who remain pats - have registered to vote. Juan Cole reports on a Zogby poll that says only 56% of Kurds say they are likely to or definitely will vote. (In the case of Kurds, there is expected to be an overwhelming majority for the > "unity alliance" involving the two main Kurdish parties, the communists and a small Islamist party). Further, only 9% of Sunnis will vote. Interestingly, the poll also reports that both Sunnis and Shias - whose voting intentions are obviously very different - want the occupiers out very soon (82% Sunnis, 69% Shias). Many Shi'ites are preparing to shun the elections, precisely because they are not seen as legitimate. It had been hoped that Sadr, whose standing remains high, would bid his supporters to vote. Silence from the bearded chubster so far.

There is also the small question of what is being voted for; once again, it is a 'transitional' government rather than an actual one. We've heard this one before. The 'transitional' government will not exactly govern, any more than the interim government presently 'authorises' US strikes on Fallujah or Mosul. Its role will be to decide on a constitution for Iraq (doubtless with the assistance of that enormous US embassy currently under the management of John Negroponte). That may be ratified, and if it has, Iraqis might get elections for a proper government in December - after the rules of the game have been decided by the US, naturally.

Many think that elections will be the first stage in getting the occupiers out. Since no parties contesting the elections are actually calling for this, it is hard to see how this is the case. But The Guardian reports that:

[A]n independent research group, GlobalSecurity.org, which tracks Pentagon contracts and military movements, claims there are about 12 of the bases under construction. "They are suggestive that the American presence is going to dominate for years not months," said John Pike, the head of the organisation. He added that the bases were not the only evidence that US troops planned a long stay.

"How many fighter jets does the new Iraqi army have? None. How many tanks? None. What do you call a country with no jets and no fighter planes? It's called a protectorate.

"They're so far away from giving Iraq a normal military you don't even have industry seminars salivating over the prospect of selling them stuff."

Since the US is committed to staying, and the elections are not to be allowed to alter this, the occupiers are taking no chances. The US taxpayer has been tapped for $80 million (on top of everything else) to pay for the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) to use in manipulating the Iraqi elections. From MediaLens again:

Professor William I. Robinson of the Global and International Studies Programme at the University of California calls NDI and IRI "extensions" of the US State Department:

"I suspect that [NDI and IRI] are trying to select individual leaders and organisations that are going to be very amenable to the US transnational project for Iraq."

USAID has allocated $30 million to a CIA front organisation, the National Endowment for Democracy (which was involved in assisting putschists in Venezuela), to allocate to parties regarded as 'moderate'. Ex-patriot parties have already developed a monumental material advantage by working with the occupiers, from whom they received $100 million before the invasions. Dahr Jamail reports that Iyad Allawi has so much cash, he is practically giving it away - to journalists. The money is in dollars. He also happens to be the only candidate who appears regularly on television, while what the Boston Globe calls "underfunded parties" struggle to be heard. As the Centre for Defense Alternatives points out, even the massive insecurity in Iraq benefits Allawi and the established powers since those with government positions have access to security to facilitate campaigning, while the rest who are thus impeded have little access to media.

Meanwhile, there are hundreds of candidates who are standing without being able to campaign, reveal their names or even reveal their faces when they turn up to vote. As many as fifty out of 111 parties standing have dropped out, either out of opposition to the elections as presently constructed or for fear of assassination - yet their names remain on the ballots.

So what are we left with? An election in which many cannot vote, many will not, and many will have no idea who they're voting for. No one will be able to vote to end the occupation, stop the US-imposed privatisation programmes which are destroying Iraq's economy, or put an end to the torture of prisoners which is now being practised by the same police force which is going to run Iraq's law enforcement even after the departure of troops. The result can hardly even be representative given the exclusion of so many, the bribing of journalists and the intervention of American dollars. Foreign observers will not be able to monitor the process, which at least leaves fewer people to bribe.

Iraqis deserve much, much better than this rigged, anarchic and unfair substitute for democracy.